Monday, November 29, 2010

Guest Post: Lies Across America

Guest Post: Lies Across America: "

Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform

Lies Across America

“Every single empire, in its official discourse, has said that it
is not like all the others, that its circumstances are special, that it
has a mission to enlighten, civilize, bring order and democracy, and
that it has a mission to enlighten, civilize, bring order and democracy,
and that it uses force only as a last resort.”
Edward Said


The increasingly fragile American Empire has been built on a
foundation of lies. Lies we tell ourselves and Big lies spread by our
government. The shit is so deep you can stir it with a stick. As we
enter another holiday season the mainstream corporate mass media will
relegate you to the status of consumer. This is a disgusting term that
dehumanizes all Americans. You are nothing but a blot to corporations
and advertisers selling you electronic doohickeys that they convince you
that you must have. Propaganda about consumer spending being essential
to an economic recovery is spewed from 52 inch HDTVs across the land, 24
hours per day, by CNBC, Fox, CBS and the other corporate owned media
that generate billions in profits from selling advertising to
corporations schilling material goods to thoughtless American consumers.
Aldous Huxley had it figured out decades ago:


“Thanks to compulsory education and the rotary press, the
propagandist has been able, for many years past, to convey his messages
to virtually every adult in every civilized country.”


Americans were given the mental capacity to critically think. Sadly, a
vast swath of Americans has chosen ignorance over knowledge. Make no
mistake about it, ignorance is a choice. It doesn’t matter whether you
are poor or rich. Books are available to everyone in this country. Sob
stories about the disadvantaged poor having no access to education are
nothing but liberal spin to keep the masses controlled. There are
122,500 libraries in this country. If you want to read a book, you can
read a book. The internet puts knowledge at the fingertips of every
citizen. Becoming educated requires hard work, sacrifice, curiosity, and
a desire to learn. Aldous Huxley describes the American choice to be ignorant:


“Most ignorance is vincible ignorance. We don’t know because we don’t want to know.”


It is a choice to play Call of Duty on your PS3 rather than reading
Shakespeare. It is a choice to stand on a street corner looking for
trouble rather than reading Hemingway. It is a choice to spend Black
Friday in malls fighting other robotic consumers for iSomethings, the
latest innovative, advanced TVs, flashy Rolexes, and ostentatious Coach
bags rather than spending the day reading Guns of August by
Barbara Tuchman, a brilliant Pulitzer Prize winning history of the
outset of World War I, which would provide insight into what could
happen on the Korean Peninsula. It is a choice to watch 6 hours per day
of Dancing With the Stars, American Idol, Brainless Housewives of
Everywhere, or CSI of Anywhere rather than reading Orwell or Huxley and discovering that their dystopian warnings have come true.


Conspicuous Consumption Conquistadors


Americans have chosen to lie to themselves. They have persuaded
themselves that buying stuff with plastic cards while paying 19%
interest for eternity, driving BMWs while locked into never ending
indecipherable lease schemes, and living in permanently underwater
McMansions bought with 0% down on an interest only liar loan, is the new
American Dream. They think watching the boob tube will make them smart.
They soak in the mass media hype, misinformation and lies like lemmings
walking off a cliff. Depending on their political predisposition, they
watch Fox or MSNBC and unthinkingly believe the propaganda that pours
from the mouths of the multi-millionaire talking heads who read
Teleprompters with words written by corporate media hacks. They tell
themselves that buying stuff on credit, giving them the appearance of
success as measured by the media elite, is actually success. This is a
bastardized, manipulated, delusional version of accomplishment.
Americans have chosen to believe the lies because the truth is too hard
to accept.


Becoming educated, thinking critically, working hard, saving money to
buy what you need (as opposed to what you want), developing human
relationships, and questioning the motivations of government, corporate
and religious leaders is hard. It is easy to coast through school and
never read a book for the rest of your life. It is easy to not think
about the future, your retirement, or the future of unborn generations.
It is easy to coast through life at a job (until you lose it) that is
unchallenging, with no desire or motivation for advancement. It is easy
to make your everyday troubles disappear by whipping out your piece of
plastic and acquiring everything you desire today. If your
brother-in-law buys a 7,000 sq ft, 7 bedroom, 4 bath, 3 car garage,
monolith to decadence for his family of 3, thirty miles from
civilization, with no money down and a no doc Option ARM providing the
funds, why shouldn’t you get in on the fun. It’s easy. Why sit around
the kitchen table and talk with your kids, when you can easily cruise
the internet downloading free porn or recording every trivial detail of
your shallow life on Facebook so others can waste their time reading
about your life. It is easiest to believe your elected leaders,
glorified mega-corporation CEOs, and millionaire pastors preaching the
word of God for a “small” contribution to their mega-churches.


Americans love authority figures who act as if they have all the
answers. It matters not that these egotistical monuments to folly and
hubris (Bush, Obama, Paulson, Geithner, Greenspan, Bernanke) have
committed the worst atrocities in the history of our Republic, leaving
economic carnage and the slaughter of thousands in their wake. The most
dangerous man on this earth is an Ivy League educated, arrogant
ideologue who believes they are smarter than everyone else. When these
men achieve power, they are capable of producing catastrophic
consequences. Once they seize the reigns of authority these amoral
psychopaths have no problem lying to the American public in order to
achieve their objectives. They know that Americans love to be lied to,
so the bigger the lie, the more likely it is to be believed.


The current lie proliferating across the land of the free financing
and home of the debtor is that austerity has broken out across the land.
The mainstream media and the government, aided by various “think tanks”
and Federal Reserve propagandists insist that Americans have buckled
down, reduced spending, increased savings, and have embraced austerity.


Austerity – Circa 1932



Austerity – Circa 2010



They now proclaim that it is time to spend again. It is the patriotic
thing to do, just like defeating terrorists by buying an SUV with 0%
down from GM was the patriotic thing to do after 9/11. Defeating
terrorists by going further into debt was the brilliant idea of those
Ivy League geniuses Bush & Greenspan. Let’s critically examine the
facts to determine how austere Americans have become:


  • Consumer credit outstanding is $2.41 trillion, the same level
    reached in early 2007, and up from $1.5 trillion in 2000. This is a 60%
    increase in ten years. Personal income has risen from $8.4 trillion to
    $12.6 trillion over this same time frame, a 50% increase. Americans have
    substituted debt for income in order to keep up with the Joneses. The
    mass delusion lives.
  • The MSM declares that the reduction in overall consumer debt from
    its peak of $2.56 trillion in 2008 to $2.41 trillion today proves that
    consumers have been cutting back and paying off debt. This is another
    media lie. Non-revolving debt, which includes car loans, education
    loans, mobile home loans and boat loans sits at $1.6 trillion, an
    all-time high matched in 2008. Credit card debt has “plunged” from $957
    billion to $814 billion, not because consumers paid down their balances.
    The mega Wall Street banks have written off $20 billion per quarter
    since early 2009, accounting for ALL of the reduction in credit card
    debt. Clueless consumers continue to charge at the same rate as the peak
    in 2008.
  • Average credit card debt per household with credit card debt: $15,788
  • There are 609.8 million bank credit cards held by U.S. consumers.
  • The U.S. credit card default rate is 13.01%
  • In 2006, the United States Census Bureau determined that there were
    nearly 1.5 billion credit cards in use in the U.S. A stack of all those
    credit cards would reach more than 70 miles into space – and be almost
    as tall as 13 Mount Everests.
  • Penalty fees from credit cards added up to about $20.5 billion in 2009.
  • The national average default rate as January 2010 stood at 27.88% and the mean default rate is 28.99%.
  • Total bankruptcy filings in 2009 reached 1.4 million, up from 1.09
    million in 2008. Bankruptcies in 2010 are on pace to exceed 1.6 million.
  • 26% of Americans, or more than 58 million adults, admit to not
    paying all of their bills on time. Among African-Americans, this number
    is at 51%.

Does This Look Like Austerity? Really?



This data clearly proves that austerity has not broken out across the
land of delusion. The billions in consumer loan write-offs by the Wall
Street banks that run this country have masked the fact that Americans
have not cut back on their spending habits at all. GMAC (taxpayer owned)
and Ford Credit continue to dish out car loans to anyone with a pulse
and a 600 credit score. The Federal Reserve and the FASB have
encouraged, if not insisted, that banks fraudulently value the
commercial real estate loans on their books. The Federal Reserve has
bought $1.5 trillion of toxic mortgage loans from the criminal Wall
Street banks at 100 cents on the dollar. The government’s corporate
fascist public relations firms then spread the big lie that the economy
is recovering and consumers should join the party and spend, spend,
spend.


If Americans were capable or willing to do some critical thinking,
they would realize that those in power have created the illusion of a
recovery by handing $700 billion of your money to the banks that created
the financial meltdown, spending $800 billion on worthless pork barrel
projects borrowed from future generations, dropping interest rates to 0%
so that the mega-Wall Street banks can earn billions risk free while
your grandmother who depended on interest income from her CDs edges
closer to eating cat food to get by, and lastly Ben Bernanke’s blatant
attempt to enrich Wall Street by buying US Treasury bonds in an effort
to make the stock market go up, while the middle and lower classes are
crushed under the weight of soaring fuel and food price increases that
exceed 30% on an annual basis. The illusion of recovery is not a
recovery. With a true unemployment rate of 22%, a true inflation rate of
8% and a real GDP of -1.5% (Shadowstats), we are in the midst of the Greater Depression. You are being lied to, but most of you prefer it.


The Little Lies We Tell Ourselves


“Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know.” – M King Hubbert


When Jimmy Carter gave his malaise speech in 1979, Americans were in
no mood to listen. Carter’s solutions were too painful, required
sacrifice, and sought to benefit future generations. The leading edge of
the Baby Boom generation had reached their 30s by 1979, and the most
spoiled, pampered, egocentric generation in history could care less
about future generations, long term thinking, or sacrifice for the
greater good. They were the ME GENERATION. The 1970s had proven to be
tumultuous episode in US history. M King Hubbert’s calculation in 1956
that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s proved to be 100%
correct.


File:US Oil Production and Imports 1920 to 2005.png



The Arab oil embargo resulted in gas shortages and economic chaos in
the U.S. Hubbert used the same method to determine that worldwide oil
production would peak in the early 2000s. If long term planning had been
initiated in the early 1980s, combining exploration of untapped
reserves, greater utilization of natural gas, development of nuclear
plants, more stringent fuel efficiency standards, increased taxes on
gasoline, and more thoughtful development of housing communities, we
would not now face a looming oil crisis within the next few years.
Instead of dealing with reality, adapting our behavior and preparing for
a more localized society, we put our blinders on, chose ignorance over
reason and pushed the pedal to the medal by moving farther away from our
jobs, building bigger energy intensive mansions, and insisting on
driving tank-like SUVs, Hummers, and good ole boy pickups. Kevin
Phillips in American Theocracy
explained that hyper-consumerism, fear, and inability to use logic have
left our suburban oasis lives in danger of implosion when the reality
of peak cheap oil strikes:


Besides the innate thirst of SUVs, some of the last quarter
century’s surge in U.S. oil consumption has come from Americans driving
more – some twelve thousand miles per motorist per year, up almost one –
third from 1980 – because they as a whole live farther from work. In
consumption terms, exurbia is the physical result of the latest
population redistribution enabled by car culture and the electorate that
upholds it.


Family values are central – if by this we mean having families
and accepting lengthy commutes to install them in reasonably safe and
well churched places. In the 1970’s such households might have been
fleeing school busing or central city crime; in the post – September 11
era, many sought distance from “godless” school systems or the random
violence and terrorist attacks expected to occur in metropolitan areas.


We willingly believe the lies espoused by the badly informed pundits
on CNBC and Fox that if we just drill in Alaska and off our coasts,
we’ll be fine. The ignorant peak cheap oil deniers insist there are
billions of barrels of oil to be harvested from the Bakken Shale, even
though there is absolutely no method of accessing this supply without
expending more energy than we can access. Environmentalists lie about
the dangers of nuclear power, while shamelessly promoting the ridiculous
notion that solar, wind and ethanol can make a visible impact on our
future energy needs. Ideologues on the right and left conveniently
ignore the facts and the truth is lost in a blizzard of their lies. Here
is an explanation so clear, even a CNBC “drill baby drill” dimwit could
understand:


When oil production first began in the mid-nineteenth century,
the largest oil fields recovered fifty barrels of oil for every barrel
used in the extraction, transportation and refining. This ratio is often
referred to as the Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROEI).
Currently, between one and five barrels of oil are recovered for each
barrel-equivalent of energy used in the recovery process. As the EROEI
drops to one, or equivalently the Net Energy Gain falls to zero, the oil
production is no longer a net energy source. This happens long before
the resource is physically exhausted.


File:Hubbert peak oil plot.svg



After the briefest of lulls when oil reached $145 per barrel,
Americans have resumed buying SUVs, pickup trucks, and gas guzzling
muscle cars. They have chosen to ignore the imminence of peak cheap oil
because driving a leased BMW makes your neighbors think you are a
success, while driving a hybrid would make your neighbors think you are a
liberal tree hugger. It boggles my mind that so many Americans are so
shallow and shortsighted. According to Automotive News, at the start of
2008 leasing comprised 31.2% of luxury vehicle sales and 18.7% of
non-luxury sales. This proves that hundreds of thousands of wannabes are
driving leased BMWs and Mercedes to fill some void in their superficial
lives.


I bought a Honda Insight Hybrid six months ago. It gets 44 mpg and
will save me $1,500 per year in gasoline costs. I put 20% down and
financed the remainder at 0.9% for three years. My payment is $450 per
month. I will own it outright in 2 ½ years. I could have leased a 2010
BMW 328i with moonroof, bluetooth, power seats with driver seat memory,
lumbar support, leather interior, iPod adapter, 17″ alloy wheels, heated
seats, wood trim, 3.0 Liter 6 Cylinder engine with 230 horsepower for 3
years at $389 per month. At the end of 3 years I’d own nothing. In 2 ½
years I’ll be able to put $450 per month away for my kids’ college
education and I’ll be saving more on fuel as gasoline approaches $5 per
gallon. The self important egotistical BMW leaser pretending to be
successful will need to hand over their sweet ride and move on to the
next lease, never saving a dime for the future. I’m sure they’ll make a
killing in the market or their McMansion will surely double in price,
providing a fantastic retirement.


Delusional Practical



The delusion that cheap oil is a God given right of all Americans can
be seen in the YTD data on vehicle sales. Pickups and SUVs account for
48.5% of all sales, while small fuel efficient cars account for only
16.5% of all sales. Americans will continue to lie to themselves until
it is too late, again.

Americans are so committed to their automobiles, hyper-consumerism,
oversized McMansions, and suburban sprawl existence that they will never
willingly prepare in advance for a future by scaling back, downsizing,
or thinking. Our culture is built upon consumption, debt, cheap oil and
illusion. Kevin Phillips in American Theocracy
concludes that there are so many Americans tied to our unsustainable
economic model that they will choose to lie to themselves and be lied to
by their leaders rather than think and adapt:


A large number of voters work in or depend on the energy and
automobile industries, and still more are invested in them, not just
financially but emotionally and culturally. These secondary cadres
included racing fans, hobbyists, collectors, and dedicated readers of
automotive magazines, as well as the tens of millions of automobile
commuters from suburbs and distant exurbs, plus the high number of
drivers whose strong self-identification with vehicle types and models
serve as thinly disguised political statements. In the United States
more than elsewhere, a preference for conspicuous consumption over
energy efficiency and conservation is a signal of a much deeper, central
divide.


M King Hubbert was a geophysicist and a practical man. He observed
data, made realistic assumptions, and came to logical conclusions. He
didn’t deal in unrealistic hope and unwarranted optimism. He knew that
our culture had become so dependent upon lies and an unsustainable
growth model based on depleting oil and debt based “prosperity”. He knew
decades ago that we were incapable of dealing with the truth:


“Our principal constraints are cultural. During the last two
centuries we have known nothing but exponential growth and in parallel
we have evolved what amounts to an exponential-growth culture, a culture
so heavily dependent upon the continuance of exponential growth for its
stability that it is incapable of reckoning with problems of
non-growth.”
M King Hubbert


Our country is at a crucial juncture. It is time for thinkers. It is
time for realists. It is time to deal with facts. It is time to drive
the ideologues off the stage. Are you tired of lying to yourselves? Are
you tired of being lied to by the corporate fascists that run this
country? It is time to wake up. Right wing and left wing ideologues will
continue to spew lies and misinformation as they are power hungry and
care not for the long-term survival of our nation or the unborn
generations that depend upon the decisions we make today. It is time to
see how we really are.


“Most of one’s life is one prolonged effort to prevent
oneself from thinking. People intoxicate themselves with work so they
won’t see how they really are.”
– Aldous Huxley

"

Sunday, November 28, 2010

DEEP THOUGHTS FROM DAVID ROSENBERG

DEEP THOUGHTS FROM DAVID ROSENBERG: "

Via WealthTrack:


“On this week’s Consuelo Mack WealthTrack, a Financial Thought Leader who called the credit and housing bubbles way ahead of the pack. Gluskin Sheff’s prescient Chief Economist, David Rosenberg shares his economic and market outlook, plus advice on how to invest in it.”



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Korea: The Fate of a Cold War Vestige

Korea: The Fate of a Cold War Vestige: "
[We are currently witnessing increasingly nasty displays of deadly force on both sides of the Korean divide. The North appears to be getting ready to call America's bluff. What will the South do, faced with growing belligerence from the North and progressive paralysis in the US? Our thoughts should be with the Korean people—both North and South. What follows is the introduction to the Korean edition of Reinventing Collapse which I wrote earlier this year.]

Over the course of the Cold War, the two superpowers—USA and USSR—built up an inventory of unresolved conflicts, which they, by tacit agreement, placed in deep freeze for the duration of their combined existence. In some cases, ethnically homogeneous entities were split up across artificial political boundaries, while in other cases disparate ethnic groups were held together by force within a single artificial political unit. Once the USSR collapsed, the multi-ethnic entities—Georgia, Moldova and Czechoslovakia—did their best to break apart, while the partitioned ones did their best to try to reunify. While some of these frozen conflicts—most notably Germany—needed both superpowers to remain refrigerated, one particular example—Korea—remained well-preserved even after the the collapse of the USSR, with the North providing its own, self-sufficient source of refrigeration.

For now, the US military continues to maintain over a thousand foreign military bases around the world, including South Korea. Most of these serve no real purpose. Even while it was still opposing the Soviets, the US military morphed into a sort of grand extortion scheme: the American intelligence community exaggerated global threats, and the military spent copious public funds pretending to counter them. To this day the military remains Washington's single most powerful political lobby (Israel is a distant second) and thanks to its efforts America spends more on defense than most of the other nations of the world combined. But what it gets for all this money is in fact quite meager. There are just two things that the US military can do well: it can shoot civilians and blow things up with wild abandon (as it has been doing in Iraq and Afghanistan); it can also hold a proud and purposeful pose while doing nothing (as in South Korea and many other countries around the world). There is not a single country that is sufficiently defenseless, defunct and impoverished—not Iraq, not Afghanistan, not even Somalia—so that the mighty US military can successfully conquer and control it. (Perhaps Haiti—but only just after a major earthquake.)

It is something of a law of history that sooner or later all empires must collapse. It is also something of a law of group psychology that people always underestimate the probability of large and sudden changes, and so are they are always taken by surprise when they occur. Nobody was more surprised by the collapse of the USSR than the professional sovietologists. As Reinventing Collapse explains in detail, the collapse of the United States of America is already a given. Only the timing of its collapse remains uncertain, because it can be triggered by any number of relatively minor, unexpected events. Inevitably, the US will be forced to repatriate its troops and to liquidate its overseas military bases, in order to concentrate its efforts on attempting to reign in the forces of chaos on its own territory. We can only hope that the unwinding and scrapping of the US military empire will proceed in a controlled manner. There are few countries in the world that have more of a reason to think forward to that day and to plan accordingly than South Korea, and so it is quite appropriate that Korean is the second language, after English, in which Reinventing Collapse has been published.

The collapse of the American empire is certain to be accompanied by a long cascade of global crises. International trade and finance are sure to be disrupted. Countries around the world will be subjected to an experience similar to what countries in the former Soviet sphere went through after the USSR collapsed. They are sure to experience economic dislocation, numerous bankruptcies, mass unemployment and impoverishment, political crises, and many lives will be cut short as a result. Some countries did better than others in adjusting to the new circumstances, and can offer useful lessons. For instance, when Cuba was cut off from the Soviet oil supply, it pioneered the use of organic urban agriculture, and it did succeed in feeding its population without the use of fossil fuel inputs. North Korea is generally not seen as a success story, but it too may be able to offer a few useful lessons on surviving superpower collapses. Moreover, it does have a population accustomed to extreme hardship, and that, in the new circumstances, may itself turn out to be an asset.

Over the course of my life I have known many Koreans, both in the US and in Russia. (There is one particular North Korean student of nuclear engineering I remember: a very serious and sober young man living quietly in a fraternity of hard-drinking Russian engineering students. 'Our little Chernobyl' we called him.) From what I have been able to piece together based on what I've been able to observe, Koreans are quite patriotic, very resourceful, detest foreign meddling in their affairs, and are exactly like everyone else in wanting a peaceful and prosperous existence for themselves. It may very well be that Korea's 21st century will make up for the horrors of the 20th, while most of the former USA devolves into a collection of lawless, ungovernable, sparsely populated territories that, gradually or abruptly, fade from the world scene. But such a positive result for Korea is by no means automatic. Fierce beasts are at their most dangerous right after they have been fatally wounded, and it is hard to predict what sort of damage a fatally wounded America might cause in its agony. Korea will have to reinvent America's collapse to its own advantage. Being a foreigner, and not wishing to meddle in Korean affairs, all I can say is, think ahead, plan ahead, and may you have the best luck possible!
"

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

America—The Grim Truth

America—The Grim Truth: "
[Guest post by Anonymous. I was planning to write something a bit like this, but found that someone has done some of my work for me. Please give it a read, while I concentrate on the part of the topic that interests me the most: 'What's Keeping You Here?']

Americans, I have some bad news for you:

You have the worst quality of life in the developed world—by a wide margin.

If you had any idea of how people really lived in Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and many parts of Asia, you’d be rioting in the streets calling for a better life. In fact, the average Australian or Singaporean taxi driver has a much better standard of living than the typical American white-collar worker.

I know this because I am an American, and I escaped from the prison you call home.

I have lived all around the world, in wealthy countries and poor ones, and there is only one country I would never consider living in again: The United States of America. The mere thought of it fills me with dread.

Consider this: you are the only people in the developed world without a single-payer health system. Everyone in Western Europe, Japan, Canada, Australia, Singapore and New Zealand has a single-payer system. If they get sick, they can devote all their energies to getting well. If you get sick, you have to battle two things at once: your illness and the fear of financial ruin. Millions of Americans go bankrupt every year due to medical bills, and tens of thousands die each year because they have no insurance or insufficient insurance. And don’t believe for a second that rot about America having the world’s best medical care or the shortest waiting lists: I’ve been to hospitals in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Singapore, and Thailand, and every one was better than the “good” hospital I used to go to back home. The waits were shorter, the facilities more comfortable, and the doctors just as good.

This is ironic, because you need a good health system more than anyone else in the world. Why? Because your lifestyle is almost designed to make you sick.

Let’s start with your diet: Much of the beef you eat has been exposed to fecal matter in processing. Your chicken is contaminated with salmonella. Your stock animals and poultry are pumped full of growth hormones and antibiotics. In most other countries, the government would act to protect consumers from this sort of thing; in the United States, the government is bought off by industry to prevent any effective regulations or inspections. In a few years, the majority of all the produce for sale in the United States will be from genetically modified crops, thanks to the cozy relationship between Monsanto Corporation and the United States government. Worse still, due to the vast quantities of high-fructose corn syrup Americans consume, fully one-third of children born in the United States today will be diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes at some point in their lives.

Of course, it’s not just the food that’s killing you, it’s the drugs. If you show any sign of life when you’re young, they’ll put you on Ritalin. Then, when you get old enough to take a good look around, you’ll get depressed, so they’ll give you Prozac. If you’re a man, this will render you chemically impotent, so you’ll need Viagra to get it up. Meanwhile, your steady diet of trans-fat-laden food is guaranteed to give you high cholesterol, so you’ll get a prescription for Lipitor. Finally, at the end of the day, you’ll lay awake at night worrying about losing your health plan, so you’ll need Lunesta to go to sleep.

With a diet guaranteed to make you sick and a health system designed to make sure you stay that way, what you really need is a long vacation somewhere. Unfortunately, you probably can’t take one. I’ll let you in on little secret: if you go to the beaches of Thailand, the mountains of Nepal, or the coral reefs of Australia, you’ll probably be the only American in sight. And you’ll be surrounded crowds of happy Germans, French, Italians, Israelis, Scandinavians and wealthy Asians. Why? Because they’re paid well enough to afford to visit these places AND they can take vacations long enough to do so. Even if you could scrape together enough money to go to one of these incredible places, by the time you recovered from your jetlag, it would time to get on a plane and rush back to your job.

If you think I’m making this up, check the stats on average annual vacation days by country:

Finland: 44
Italy: 42
France: 39
Germany: 35
UK: 25
Japan: 18
USA: 12

The fact is, they work you like dogs in the United States. This should come as no surprise: the United States never got away from the plantation/sweat shop labor model and any real labor movement was brutally suppressed. Unless you happen to be a member of the ownership class, your options are pretty much limited to barely surviving on service-sector wages or playing musical chairs for a spot in a cubicle (a spot that will be outsourced to India next week anyway). The very best you can hope for is to get a professional degree and then milk the system for a slice of the middle-class pie. And even those who claw their way into the middle class are but one illness or job loss away from poverty. Your jobs aren’t secure. Your company has no loyalty to you. They’ll play you off against your coworkers for as long as it suits them, then they’ll get rid of you.

Of course, you don’t have any choice in the matter: the system is designed this way. In most countries in the developed world, higher education is either free or heavily subsidized; in the United States, a university degree can set you back over US$100,000. Thus, you enter the working world with a crushing debt. Forget about taking a year off to travel the world and find yourself – you’ve got to start working or watch your credit rating plummet.

If you’re “lucky,” you might even land a job good enough to qualify you for a home loan. And then you’ll spend half your working life just paying the interest on the loan – welcome to the world of American debt slavery. America has the illusion of great wealth because there’s a lot of “stuff” around, but who really owns it? In real terms, the average American is poorer than the poorest ghetto dweller in Manila, because at least they have no debts. If they want to pack up and leave, they can; if you want to leave, you can’t, because you’ve got debts to pay.

All this begs the question: Why would anyone put up with this? Ask any American and you’ll get the same answer: because America is the freest country on earth. If you believe this, I’ve got some more bad news for you: America is actually among the least free countries on earth. Your piss is tested, your emails and phone calls are monitored, your medical records are gathered, and you are never more than one stray comment away from writhing on the ground with two Taser prongs in your ass.

And that’s just physical freedom. Mentally, you are truly imprisoned. You don’t even know the degree to which you are tormented by fears of medical bankruptcy, job loss, homelessness and violent crime because you’ve never lived in a country where there is no need to worry about such things.

But it goes much deeper than mere surveillance and anxiety. The fact is, you are not free because your country has been taken over and occupied by another government. Fully 70% of your tax dollars go to the Pentagon, and the Pentagon is the real government of the United States. You are required under pain of death to pay taxes to this occupying government. If you’re from the less fortunate classes, you are also required to serve and die in their endless wars, or send your sons and daughters to do so. You have no choice in the matter: there is a socioeconomic draft system in the United States that provides a steady stream of cannon fodder for the military.

If you call a life of surveillance, anxiety and ceaseless toil in the service of a government you didn’t elect “freedom,” then you and I have a very different idea of what that word means.

If there was some chance that the country could be changed, there might be reason for hope. But can you honestly look around and conclude that anything is going to change? Where would the change come from? The people? Take a good look at your compatriots: the working class in the United States has been brutally propagandized by jackals like Rush Limbaugh, Bill O’Reilly and Sean Hannity. Members of the working class have been taught to lick the boots of their masters and then bend over for another kick in the ass. They’ve got these people so well trained that they’ll take up arms against the other half of the working class as soon as their masters give the word.

If the people cannot make a change, how about the media? Not a chance. From Fox News to the New York Times, the mass media in the United States is nothing but the public relations wing of the corporatocracy, primarily the military industrial complex. At least the citizens of the former Soviet Union knew that their news was bullshit. In America, you grow up thinking you’ve got a free media, which makes the propaganda doubly effective. If you don’t think American media is mere corporate propaganda, ask yourself the following question: have you ever heard a major American news outlet suggest that the country could fund a single-payer health system by cutting military spending?

If change can’t come from the people or the media, the only other potential source of change would be the politicians. Unfortunately, the American political process is among the most corrupt in the world. In every country on earth, one expects politicians to take bribes from the rich. But this generally happens in secret, behind the closed doors of their elite clubs. In the United States, this sort of political corruption is done in broad daylight, as part of legal, accepted, standard operating procedure. In the United States, they merely call these bribes campaign donations, political action committees and lobbyists. One can no more expect the politicians to change this system than one can expect a man to take an axe and chop his own legs out from underneath him.

No, the United States of America is not going to change for the better. The only change will be for the worse. And when I say worse, I mean much worse. As we speak, the economic system that sustained the country during the post-war years is collapsing. The United States maxed out its “credit card” sometime in 2008 and now its lenders, starting with China, are in the process of laying the foundations for a new monetary system to replace the Anglo-American “petro-dollar” system. As soon as there is a viable alternative to the US dollar, the greenback will sink like a stone.

While the United States was running up crushing levels of debt, it was also busy shipping its manufacturing jobs and white-collar jobs overseas, and letting its infrastructure fall to pieces. Meanwhile, Asian and European countries were investing in education, infrastructure and raw materials. Even if the United States tried to rebuild a real economy (as opposed to a service/financial economy) do think American workers would ever be able to compete with the workers of China or Europe? Have you ever seen a Japanese or German factory? Have you ever met a Singaporean or Chinese worker?

There are only two possible futures facing the United States, and neither one is pretty. The best case is a slow but orderly decline – essentially a continuation of what’s been happening for the last two decades. Wages will drop, unemployment will rise, Medicare and Social Security benefits will be slashed, the currency will decline in value, and the disparity of wealth will spiral out of control until the United States starts to resemble Mexico or the Philippines – tiny islands of wealth surrounded by great poverty (the country is already halfway there).

Equally likely is a sudden collapse, perhaps brought about by a rapid flight from the US dollar by creditor nations like China, Japan, Korea and the OPEC nations. A related possibility would be a default by the United States government on its vast debt. One look at the financial balance sheet of the US government should convince you how likely this is: governmental spending is skyrocketing and tax receipts are plummeting – something has to give. If either of these scenarios plays out, the resulting depression will make the present recession look like a walk in the park.

Whether the collapse is gradual or gut-wrenchingly sudden, the results will be chaos, civil strife and fascism. Let’s face it: the United States is like the former Yugoslavia – a collection of mutually antagonistic cultures united in name only. You’ve got your own version of the Taliban: right-wing Christian fundamentalists who actively loathe the idea of secular Constitutional government. You’ve got a vast intellectual underclass that has spent the last few decades soaking up Fox News and talk radio propaganda, eager to blame the collapse on Democrats, gays and immigrants. You’ve got a ruthless ownership class that will use all the means at its disposal to protect its wealth from the starving masses.

On top of all that you’ve got vast factory farms, sprawling suburbs and a truck-based shipping system, all of it entirely dependent on oil that is about to become completely unaffordable. And you’ve got guns. Lots of guns. In short: the United States is about to become a very unwholesome place to be.

Right now, the government is building fences and walls along its northern and southern borders. Right now, the government is working on a national ID system (soon to be fitted with biometric features). Right now, the government is building a surveillance state so extensive that they will be able to follow your every move, online, in the street and across borders. If you think this is just to protect you from “terrorists,” then you’re sadly mistaken. Once the shit really hits the fan, do you really think you’ll just be able to jump into the old station wagon, drive across the Canadian border and spend the rest of your days fishing and drinking Molson? No, the government is going to lock the place down. They don’t want their tax base escaping. They don’t want their “recruits” escaping. They don’t want YOU escaping.

I am not writing this to scare you. I write this to you as a friend. If you are able to read and understand what I’ve written here, then you are a member of a small minority in the United States. You are a minority in a country that has no place for you.

So what should you do?

You should leave the United States of America.

If you’re young, you’ve got plenty of choices: you can teach English in the Middle East, Asia or Europe. Or you can go to university or graduate school abroad and start building skills that will qualify you for a work visa. If you’ve already got some real work skills, you can apply to emigrate to any number of countries as a skilled immigrant. If you are older and you’ve got some savings, you can retire to a place like Costa Rica or the Philippines. If you can’t qualify for a work, student or retirement visa, don’t let that stop you – travel on a tourist visa to a country that appeals to you and talk to the expats you meet there. Whatever you do, go speak to an immigration lawyer as soon as you can. Find out exactly how to get on a path that will lead to permanent residence and eventually citizenship in the country of your choice.

You will not be alone. There are millions of Americans just like me living outside the United States. Living lives much more fulfilling, peaceful, free and abundant than we ever could have attained back home. Some of us happened upon these lives by accident – we tried a year abroad and found that we liked it – others made a conscious decision to pack up and leave for good. You’ll find us in Canada, all over Europe, in many parts of Asia, in Australia and New Zealand, and in most other countries of the globe. Do we miss our friends and family? Yes. Do we occasionally miss aspects of our former country? Yes. Do we plan on ever living again in the United States? Never. And those of us with permanent residence or citizenship can sponsor family members from back home for long-term visas in our adopted countries.

In closing, I want to remind you of something: unless you are an American Indian or a descendant of slaves, at some point your ancestors chose to leave their homeland in search of a better life. They weren’t traitors and they weren’t bad people, they just wanted a better life for themselves and their families. Isn’t it time that you continue their journey?
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Sunday, November 21, 2010

Time-Lapse Video Of Food Stamp Participation Rates During The "New Normal"

Time-Lapse Video Of Food Stamp Participation Rates During The "New Normal": "

With everyone chanting the praises of the 'better than abysmal' economy, we decided to post a time lapse video (since cartoons are all that stand an even remote chance of attracting some attention) prepared by John Lohman,
of just how the New Normal has been progressing, both since the starts
of the great depression in December 2007, and more importantly, since
the beginning of the 'end' of the recession. The result may surprise you. As John points out: food stamps - the only thing keeping 43 million Americans from going postal.' Hopefully the end of extended unemployment benefits coming December 1 won't be that first one additional straw on the camel's back that leads to a full blown fracture.

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Thursday, November 18, 2010

Jeremy Grantham has ‘already started to sell’

Jeremy Grantham has ‘already started to sell’: "

This is a must-see video right here that runs 30 minutes. Take your time to watch the whole thing. It is a real coup that CNBC got Grantham on their program.

Overall, Grantham’s view is the same as mine. The Fed should get out of trying to use monetary policy to do fiscal policy. It doesn’t work; it creates bubbles that are destabilising. The Fed should be moving against bubbles instead of creating them. Fiscal policy is the way to go to deal with a large output gap. Bernanke knows this too. Think of how a 21st century unemployment insurance program targeted on infrastructure spending could reduce unemployment in the less skilled segment of the population (more on that here and here). Of course, because of the move to austerity in the US, this is never going to happen. So, Bernanke is going QE – which, by the way, doesn’t endear the US to anyone.

Note that the emerging markets are up over 3 times as much as the S&P 500 since 2000. Do we really need more money pumped into those economies? As an aside, Grantham is a macro-oriented investor. Grantham uses the EM example to point out that asset allocation is more powerful than picking individual stocks. If a whole sector is moving up that much, do you really think you can call individual picks within it to make significantly more?

Grantham believes the U.S. is overpriced already. And the Fed seems to be trying to push the market up even higher via animal spirits. He says he has "already started to sell." So, regarding the QE pump and dump, I have been saying buy the rumour, sell the news. Grantham recommends buying high quality blue chips and holding a decent amount of cash.

On peak commodities, I am in the Grantham boat. I think we are reaching a point where the demand for natural resources is outstripping supply. Debt deflationary moves like the one we have witnessed over the past few years can mask this temporarily. But eventually the supply demand imbalance will re-assert itself as we have seen this year. The move in commodities is two parts fundamental and one part speculative, especially toward the end (see my 2008 post on peak oil here). These price rises are self-destructing due to the demand destruction they induce. But over time, they cause higher lows and higher highs in commodities.

Please also see CNBC’s piece on the interview: Have Cash, Wait for Stocks to Fall: Jeremy Grantham



Source: Full Transcript: Jeremy Grantham Interview

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Saturday, November 13, 2010

The New Economic Cycle

The New Economic Cycle: "

Gordon Long has an interesting graphic on what he describes as the New Economic Cycle.


>



>


Quite fascinating . . .


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Source:

We’ll Need The Courage Of Our Forefathers

The New Economic Cycle

Gordon T. Long

The Automatic Earth, November 8 2010
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/11/november-8-2010-well-need-courage-of.html




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